Why GM Just Killed Robotaxis (And What's Coming Instead)

Welcome to Issue #82 of The German Autopreneur!

Back in May, Daniel Abreu Marques wrote a guest newsletter here. His overview of autonomous driving got great feedback from readers.

So I'm excited that he's taking over again today with an update.

Daniel works as an autonomous driving strategist at a German manufacturer. He also publishes ‘The AV Market Strategist’ newsletter.

Since Tesla launched its robotaxi service in June, everyone's talking about self-driving cars again.

But where are we really heading? Will we own self-driving cars in the future? Or will we just use them as a service?

So my question to Daniel: What’s winning - Robotaxis or personal self-driving cars?

Guest post by Daniel Abreu Marques

Robotaxis vs. Self-Driving Cars - Where Is This Going?

The autonomous driving market is evolving rapidly. Two recent announcements caught everyone's attention:

1. General Motors is starting fresh after shutting down their robotaxi company Cruise. This time they focus on cars for private owners.

2. Tensor Auto (formerly AutoX) plans the first consumer robocar for 2026.

This brings a central question into focus: Is the trend moving away from robotaxis? And towards personally owned autonomous cars?

Robotaxis - Easier to Deploy, Already Reality

Robotaxis were the starting point for most autonomous driving companies. This had strategic reasons. The model is easier to control.

• Limited operating areas: They only need to work within selected zones.

• Depot strategy: Vehicles return regularly to a hub. Maintenance and updates happen centrally.

• Operator control: Full control over software, vehicle condition, and user experience.

Waymo leads in the US with roughly 250,000 rides per week.

Baidu Apollo, Pony(.)ai, and WeRide run robotaxi fleets in major Chinese cities. Now they're expanding internationally. Including to Europe.

This model works and is scalable.

Personal AVs - Self-Driving Cars for Private Owners

Tesla has long pushed one idea: Your personal car becomes an autonomous "robotaxi in the garage". Through over-the-air software updates. Then, it drives itself and makes money while you’re not using it.

But now the market is shifting:

• General Motors: After shutting down Cruise, they're developing a car for private owners instead. First with hands/eyes-free driving, later fully autonomous.

• Tensor: The startup announces a luxury robocar, coming in 2026. The special feature: Extreme amount of sensors (37 cameras, 5 lidars, 11 radars). All these sensors push the price into luxury segment.

• Waymo & Toyota: They're partnering to bring self-driving cars to private owners.

Why is this model so complicated?

1. Customer expectations: Buyers expect their car to drive anywhere. That's much harder than robotaxis operating in fixed areas.

2. Cost: Personal AVs need expensive hardware. They start as luxury cars. Not ready for mass adoption.

3. Liability questions: Who pays when the car crashes without a driver? These questions remain unanswered.

Hybrid Models - Airbnb for Cars?

The middle ground: Hybrid models. Private self-driving cars get integrated into robotaxi networks.

• Tesla: Their long-standing promise. Your car drops you at the office, then earns money as a robotaxi.

• Lyft: Developing the "Lyft-ready" concept. It should enable autonomous private cars to be used on their platform. So your car could generate income when you're not using it.

But there are obstacles:

Psychology: Would people really let strangers use their personal car?

Utilization vs. wear: More trips mean more income. But also higher maintenance costs.

Hybrid models sound good on paper. But they face practical and cultural barriers.

My Take

Robotaxis already work today. They're controllable, scalable, and already operating in China and the US.

Personal AVs represent the future. They offer more control and a bigger market. But face huge technical and legal challenges.

Hybrid models could bridge this gap. But they bring their own unique challenges.

We likely won't see a winner-takes-it-all. Reality will differ by region:

• Robotaxis: Shared costs, easier to implement technically.

• Personal AVs: More independence and comfort. Especially appealing in wealthy countries with low population density.

The reality today: Thousands of L4 vehicles operate in robotaxi fleets. True personal AVs don't exist yet.

🔗 av1 | bbg1 | for1 | for2 | for3 | li1 | ly1 | tc1 | tg1 | we1 | yt1

Note from Philipp:

Tesla promises your car can earn money as a robotaxi when you're not using it.

Sound familiar? It's exactly like Airbnb's original pitch.

People rent out their homes when they're not using them.

Today's reality? Most Airbnb hosts are businesses buying properties just for rental. Regular people found it too complicated and uncomfortable having strangers in their homes.

The robotaxi market will probably follow the same pattern. Would you hand over your clean car in the morning only to get it back dirty? And who wants to deal with extra maintenance from strangers using your car?

Most car owners won't bother. Just like Airbnb, specialized fleet operators will take over.

Tesla makes a bold claim: your robotaxi can earn 150% returns annually.

But here's the thing: If Tesla really expects such high returns, why would they sell the cars at all? It would be more profitable to keep them.

The answer is simple. Competition will drive margins down. Like every other market.

That's all for today.

Feel free to reply to this email with your thoughts.

Until next week,
— Philipp

PS: If you find value in this newsletter, please share it with someone who might benefit. Your support helps me continue my independent work for the automotive industry.

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