The EV Report 2025 (What No One Tells You)

Welcome to Issue #73 of The German Autopreneur!

BloombergNEF just released their annual "Electric Vehicle Outlook." It gives us a comprehensive overview of global EV development.

The results look troubling for German automakers. In short: China accelerates, Europe stumbles forward, and the US shifts into reverse.

These different speeds create a strategic nightmare for traditional automakers. Let me show you why.

The Global EV Shift Accelerates – But Not Everywhere

2025 will see every 4th new car sold globally being electric. Five years ago, it was under 5%.

Analysts expect about 22 million EVs sold worldwide this year. That's 25% growth from 2024. By 2030, they expect 39 million.

Other vehicle segments are moving even faster. Buses are already 43% electric. Two-wheelers hit 45%.

Only commercial vehicles lag at 8%. But that's changing too. In China, electric van and truck sales are exploding. They capture 19% of China's commercial market in 2025. By 2030: 46%.

The World Develops at Different Speeds

Electrification shows completely different speeds across regions. This makes things much harder for global automakers.

In China Every 2nd New Car Is Electric

By 2030, this share will hit about 75%. The country now sells 2/3 of all EVs worldwide.

The reason is simple: China is the only major market where EVs cost less than comparable ICE cars.

The result? Foreign manufacturers without competitive EVs are losing market share in China. Many are being pushed out completely.

Here's another milestone: Starting 2026, China will sell more EVs than the US sells total vehicles.

USA Cuts EV Forecasts

The US is moving backward. Bloomberg drastically reduced their US market forecast.

The reason? Political changes. EV support is being cut back. The US Senate voted in May to revoke California's waiver. This waiver lets California set stricter emission standards than federal rules. Without it, US EV sales will drop.

The result: Instead of the originally projected 47.5% EV market share in 2030, Bloomberg now expects just 27%. That's 14 million fewer EVs in the US by 2030.

Europe Shows Mixed Results

As usual: the European market develops inconsistently. EV sales slowed in 2024.

Many manufacturers pushed back sales and model launches to 2025. Reason: stricter emission limits starting this year. They want to hit their fleet targets.

Projected 2025 EV market shares vary widely:

• UK: 35%

• France: 30%

• Germany: 20-25%

• Italy: 10%

This fragmented development hurts European automakers. While some countries accelerate, others hit the brakes. This makes planning impossible and kills economies of scale.

Emerging Markets Grow Faster Than Expected

Countries like Vietnam, Thailand, and Brazil are experiencing an EV boom.

Thailand now has a higher EV share than the US. Brazil beats Japan. The reason: Chinese manufacturers offer affordable EVs specifically for these markets.

The pattern: Wherever Chinese automakers expand, EV markets grow much faster.

Affordability wins – But Charging Costs Become a Problem

The most important factor for EV success is cost. Both purchase price and operating costs.

In Germany, compact EVs cost over 50% more than comparable ICE cars. For larger vehicles, the premium drops to about 30%.

Plus: A new problem emerges with charging. Public fast-charging prices have jumped since 2022. In Europe and the US, fast charging now costs more per mile than gas.

This scares off potential buyers. Home charging remains 25-60% cheaper than gas. The catch? You need your own charging station.

The Battery Industry Has Massive Overcapacity

By end of 2025, battery production capacity will reach about 3.8 terawatt-hours. Expected demand is only 1.5 terawatt-hours.

The result? Battery plants in China are running at just 50% capacity.

But this has an upside. Overcapacity has pushed battery prices below $100 per kilowatt-hour. That's one reason why Chinese EVs are so affordable. However, prices in Europe and the US still remain above this level.

The reason for this price gap? China controls over 75% of the entire battery value chain. Both cells and all critical components.

Other Interesting EV Market Developments

1) The Next Big Thing: Solid-State Batteries

The next generation promises more safety and higher energy density. More range at the same weight. And China leads here as well.

2) Range-Extended EVs Grow Fastest

Range-Extended EVs experienced 83% growth in 2024. These vehicles combine a large battery with a small combustion engine as generator. Sold mainly in China, especially outside major cities.

3) Fuel Cells Lose Relevance

Hydrogen car sales fell for the third straight year. Down to just 5,000 in 2024. Despite massive investment and political support, the technology still can't gain traction.

4) ICE Sales Continue Declining

Global ICE sales peaked in 2017 and have declined since. The total ICE fleet will peak in 2027/2028. Then it will shrink for the first time in history.

My Take

The study shows: The transition from ICE to EV takes longer than expected.

That's bad news for traditional automakers. They must build competitive ICEs and EVs at the same time for many more years. Double costs, double complexity.

This is exactly what German manufacturers wanted to avoid. They hoped for a short, clear transformation. That hope has evaporated again.

Instead, we see different speeds continuing regionally:

• In China, you compete with modern EVs already cheaper than ICE cars

• In Europe, transformation proceeds slower than planned

• In the US, policy reversals make planning impossible

Developing 2 technologies in parallel costs billions. A huge competitive disadvantage against the Chinese. They can focus all resources on one technology.

That's why some say: "Forget EVs. Let's focus on what we do best: combustion engines."

But that's a fallacy. If you zoom out and look at the big picture, the trend is clear. In every major market:

• EV share grows

• ICE share shrinks

It’s not a question of if, but when.

The goal is the same everywhere: Full electrification. Only speed differs. The real challenge? Managing all those different speeds at once.

🔗 bl1 | bl2

That's all for today.

Feel free to reply to this email with your thoughts.

Until next week,
— Philipp

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